Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Fuels Aston Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
It was two months ago that the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a sign or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. When the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem strangely fragile – however right now the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing United.
His opener originated from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival they have to face in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.